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February 22, 2005
 the academy awards 2004
here are my picks and my predictions for sunday's oscar ceremonies.
best picture:
* the lord of the rings: return of the king
* lost in translation
* master & commander: the far side of the world
* mystic river
* seabiscuit
will win: lord of the rings
should win: lost in translation
hands down we all know that the lord of the rings is going to win this. the academy will be honouring the trilogy more than the last installment on its own. not only did it receive critical praise on a mass scale, but it's the type of box-office blockbuster film that academy voters like to see win (look at recent winners such as Titanic and Gladiator).
however, there are two more deserving films i'd like to see win: either the mastercraft shakespearean-like story-telling of mystic river or the subtle and delicately resonating film of friendship which is lost in translation. i do not deny that lord of the rings is an impressive film, but the total box office receipts are reward enough.
 best actor
* ben kingsley, the house of sand and fog
* bill murray, lost in translation
* johnny depp, pirates of the carribean
* jude law, cold mountain
* sean penn, mystic river
will win: sean penn
should win: bill murray or sean penn
i didn't see the movie the house of sand and fog, and so i can't give a full assessment of this category. of the remaining four, i have much admiration for johnny depp who creates an inspired piece of acting that made it bearable to watch pirates of the carribean. i wouldn't mind seeing this beautiful man win because of his past body of work.
in mystic river, sean penn is a father consumed with revenge. not only was his anger believable, but his very presence was intimidating and scary. he's been a very consistent actor and appears in another movie that i absolutely loved this year: 21 grams. he's deserving of a win.
but so is bill murray in lost in translation as a lonely has-been actor. this movie is of his essence, as director sofia coppola made this film specifically for him in mind. it is imposssible to have another actor play this role in the movie.
 best actress
* charlize theron, monster
* diane Keaton, something's gotta give
* keisha castle-hughes, whale rider
* naomi watts, 21 grams
* samantha morton, in america
will win: charlize theron
should win: charlize theron or keisha castle-hughes
charlize theron has this in the bag. how can you argue with roger ebert when he said that her performance in monster is "one of the best in the history of movie acting". he is right. her performance is the kind of carefully studied acting that should be rewarded.
however, i have so much affection for keisha castle-huhges who in whale rider becomes an hypnotic camera subject on screen. her kind of acting is of the natural kind where all she did was to reach from within to reduce a theatre filled crowd to tears at the toronto film festival.
 supporting actor
* alec baldwin, the cooler
* benicio del toro, 21 grams
* djimon hounsou, in america
* tim robbins, mystic river
* ken watanabe, the last samurai
will win: tim robbins
should win: tim robbins
ken watanabe gives a great performance. so does benicio del toro, but since he's a past winner, he's not going to win. this category is for tim robbins to lose. there is a scene in mystic river where tim robbins is questioned by his wife of his innocence, and he becomes so infused with immense anger and guilt that he sends terrrifying chills to the movie-goer.
 supporting actress
* holly hunter, thirteen
* marcia gay harden, mystic river
* patricia clarkson, pieces of april
* renee zellweger, cold mountain
* shohreh aghdashloo, house of sand and fog
will win: renee zellweger
should win: holly hunter
i can't make a well-informed judgment as i have not seen shohreh aghdashloo's movie, but she might just win. i've heard a renee zellweger backlash. but then again, the academy loves renee. holly hunter, though deserving of a win, is not going to win because she has already won an oscar. patricia clarkson is not expected to win as she is in a very small and little-seen film. with marcia gay harden, another past winner in this category, academy voters might feel that a cast member, laura linney, in mystic river, is the one who gives the pivotal and emotional impact for the film.
 best director
* clint eastwood, mystic river
* fernando meirelles, city of god
* peter jackson, the lord of the rings: the return of the king
* peter weir, master and commander: the far side of the world
* sofia coppola, lost in translation
will win: peter jackson
should win: peter jackson
for the scope and for his vision, peter jackson deserves an oscar for tackling the lord of the rings trilogy. but kudos to the academy for recognizing city of god.
best original song
* A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow from A Mighty Wind, Michael McKean and Annette O'Toole
* Scarlet Tide from Cold Mountain, T Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello
* The Triplets of Belleville from The Triplets of Belleville, Benoit Charest and Sylvain Chomet
* You Will Be My Ain True Love from Cold Mountain, Sting
* Into the West from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh, Howard Shore and Annie Lennox
will win: into the west
should win: a kiss at the end of the rainbow
this is the worst list of nominees ever for this category. lovely as annie lennox is, she is nominated for a forgettable song made strictly to sell soundtracks. the only standout has to be the charming song from 'a mighty wind'.
adapted screenplay
* Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor
* Braulio Mantovani, City of God
* Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
* Brian Helgeland, Mystic River
* Gary Ross, Seabiscuit
will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 
should win: Mystic River
original screenplay
* Denys Arcand, The Barbarian Invasions
* Steven Knight, Dirty Pretty Things
* Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson and David Reynolds, Finding Nemo
* Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan, In America
* Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
will win: Lost in Translation
should win: Lost in Translation
miscellaneous thoughts:
i'd like to see 'girl with a pearl earring' get recognition for art direction. i'd also like to see the barbarian invasions, a wonderful french canadian film, win for best foreign film.
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